- Elon Musk and President Trump have a falling out. The limelight isn’t big enough to handle both of them.
- DOGE (the department of government efficiency) is inefficient. When is it more efficient to have two leaders instead of one? Many before them have been felled by the buzz saw of entrenched government bureaucracy.
- China will successfully stimulate their economy. While President Xi started to pivot with stimulus in late 2024, we expect more actions to help growth in 2025.
- No interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025. U.S. economic growth will be boosted by de-regulation as well as by further tax cuts for tips, social security and overtime, and at the same time inflation is unlikely to substantially fall. As economic activity recovers interest rates naturally rise. With U.S. national debt at 121.6% of GDP, the sheer volume of current Treasury bond issuance causes rates to go higher.
- Mitch McConnell will become an obstacle to parts of Trump’s agenda. With nothing to lose, McConnell will fight back against isolationist thinking in the GOP. He won’t rubber stamp controversial nominees and will work to protect Ukraine.
- ‘Drill Baby Drill’ doesn’t result in falling energy prices. U.S. energy companies have learned that drilling for drilling’s sake doesn’t help their shareholders. They are responsible to their investors and not a government wish list. Sanctions on Iran will reduce supply, offsetting increases in U.S. production.
- Deportation efforts will be hindered by local law enforcement. Not all towns and cities are anxious to lose their low wage immigrant workers. As a result, many fewer immigrants will be deported than the numbers touted by Trump.
- Syria doesn’t turn into Libya. The new de facto leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, will raise money from the rest of the world to rebuild Syria. He will be effective in building a coalition government, albeit one with Islamic ideals.
- Trump brings peace to the Middle East. With the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah and using aggressive stances and unpredictability to his advantage, Trump achieves peace.
- Trump creates a new government department of Kiss the Ring. The department is entirely funded by Tech Bros.
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